Predictions

OK, here’s a quick thought experiment for you to try. Imagine two Highly Trained Professionals (HTP) are asked to make a prediction about whether Event A will occur.

HTP #1 says there is a 30% chance the event will occur.

HTP #2 says there is a 70% chance the event will occur.

The event occurs.

Question – which one was correct? 

As far as I can tell, they both were correct, insofar as they both recognized the event was possible. And since they were both correct, was there any real difference between the quality of their predictions? Is HTP #2 40% more correct? If there’s no difference, what’s the point? 

I think this is why weather forecasters don't advertise their "success rate" at predicting rain. It would probably be 100% success for every single weather guy - either that, or their success rate would be basically unmeasurable.

I wonder - do we work extra hard to avoid a negative event that has a 70% chance of occurring, and slack off if there's only a 30% chance? Do those numbers really mean anything at all about the future?

Charordic Age

Dee Hock, the founder of VISA International, wrote a fascinating book titled The Birth of the Chaordic Age. A particular scene from his book sticks in my mind as I see giants from the US financial sector crash and burn:

He observes"... organizations increasingly unable to achieve the purpose for which they were created, yet continuing to expand as they devour scarce recources, demean the human spirit and destroy the environment... Schools that can't teach... corporations that can neither cooperate nor compete, only consolidate, unhealthy health-care systems... economies that can't economize..."

Interesting stuff... and a book I highly recommend!

Politics & Personality

I think a politician’s personality has a huge impact on their ability to get stuff done. 

Let me go even further and say I'm pretty sure personality is how politicians get things done. Not on the basis of their knowledge, certainly not on the basis of their processes and procedures. I suspect it all comes down to personality.

I also think having a sense of humor is critical in order to be effective at almost anything (and a sense of humor is also an indication of intelligence). So, which candidate has a personality conducive to getting stuff done (recognizing there are many types of personalities that can "get stuff done")? Which has demonstrated the best sense of humor?

UPDATE

I write a lot of these posts a few days in advance, then set them to publish one day at a time, at 7am. So I didn't know about the whole "suspend my campaign" decision when I wrote this... nor did I know that this many days into the financial meltdown we still would not have heard from Sen McCain about his ideas on what to do... nor did I know he would threaten to not participate in tonight's debate... 

I think I've figured out who I'm going to vote for.

Movie Recommendations?

Kim is heading out to Texas next week, for the annual MOPS convention. That means it’s time for me to watch some movies, and you get to help nominate titles for the list. 

I’m looking for Guy Movies - you know, action/adventure films and silly/cheesy comedies... the kinds of stuff Kim wouldn’t be interested in. Stuff like Mr. Bean and Transformers. No chick-flicks allowed!

Any suggestions?

Humor Part 3: Practice What You Sell?

OK, this shot requires some explanation. See, I was out with my lovely wife, and we were at one of those kiosks in the mall, when I noticed the mini office setup on the shelf. That's what's in the picture. There's only one thing funny about it, but unless I tell you which company's kiosk it is, you'll never get the joke.

The company? Verizon Wireless. We were getting Kim a new cellphone.

The funny part? Yup, that's a land-line phone sitting on that shelf. Just in case they want to make a call from the mall, I suppose, without using up all their minutes?

Emotional Running

After I finished the half-marathon, I experienced an unusual (for me) emotion, one I don’t have a name for. What do you call the feeling that makes you want to cry at a sappy Hallmark commercial? Is there even a word for that? Or is it just “feeling emotional?” Whatever it is, that’s how I felt for a good 45 minutes or so after finishing the race…

And speaking of emotions, the day before the half-marathon, I was driving along the race route and was suddenly hit with a much easier emotion to identify – fear. Unexpected, unambiguous, plain-old fear, triggered by the sight of the road I’d be running on. The feeling went away quickly as I talked myself down, remembering my successful completion of a 10 mile run just a few days earlier. But wow, I wasn’t expecting that. 

Looking back at it, I think it was just a response to the anticipated pain involved with running 13.1 miles. It turns out, my body thinks pain is scary. And it’s right, ‘cause pain hurts.

But until this weekend, I had no idea distance running was such an emotional experience.

Politics Part Next: Economics

I don't pretend to understand the whole Fanny / Freddie / AIG / Whatever's Next fiasco. If you want a cogent, thorough analysis (which I completely agree with) check out John Medaille's blog, The Distributist Review. He points out that when it comes to Big Finance, "profits are privatized; losses are socialized." Nicely said (and sadly true)!

Clearly, economics is an important topic these days. As I've mentioned several times before, I'm not a Capitalist (dang, there goes my political career!). I'm not a Socialist either -I'm a Distributist. For new readers, distributism is a third-way economic philosophy that advocates for wide-spread, small-scale ownership of productive property. Power to the people, baby! Distributists dislike Big, whether it's Big Government or Big Business... and as recent events have shown, there's not much difference between the two.

I think one of the main questions an economic philosophy (or political candidate) needs to answer is this: Who Should Pay? If a person wants or needs something, whether it's health care, an iPod or a meal, who should pay for that something? I suspect you can build an entire economic philosophy by simply answering that question. There are other questions as well, but let's start here.

Personally, I think the individual should pay for the thing. In the case where the individual cannot pay, that person's immediate family (parents/adult children) should pay. Thus, the mom and dad should buy diapers for the infant, or the adult children should care for the elderly parent. If the immediate family cannot pay, the individual should look to (in order): extended family, friends, the church, local businesses, local government, and finally non-local government. Clearly, I'm an economic nutcase. 

If you're wondering why business comes before government on my list, it's partly because being a good neighbor is good business and I like to encourage good business... and partly because I hold to the principle of subsidiarity, which basically says a larger unit should not perform a function which can be performed by a smaller unit. So my list is basically in order of increasing size. 

This doesn't mean I'm against cooperation - far from it! I'm just pointing out that when a group gets too big, participation ceases to be cooperative and becomes coercive (did anyone ask if you wanted to buy AIG?).

Similarly, I'm convinced it is good for the distance between consumption and payment to be as small and transparent as possible. I think we should be aware of the costs involved with the things we consume, whether we are paying them directly or not (check out this post on "freeways" for more on that topic).

Any thoughts on which party might get anywhere close to this position?

I Did It!

The 12th Annual US Air Force Marathon was today, and I ran the Half-Marathon (that really should be capitalized, don't you think?) 45 seconds below my goal time! Yay me! I was hoping to get below 2 hours. I did it in 1:59:15. I might never reset my stopwatch.

It was a great race, and I'm so happy to have run it, even if I did have to put up with watching an F-22 flyby (they had an F-16 fly over too, which made up for the presence of the F-22). 

Ok, back to the race. I started out with "Pacer Jim" and a group of other aspiring 2-hour'ers. Pacer Jim promised to get us to the finish line by the 2 hour mark if we stayed with him. When we hit the 3 mile mark (after the easiest run up The Hill ever!) I struck out on my own at a slightly faster pace. When I came to the 5 mile mark, I thought "Really? Already?" and I hit the 10 mile mark at exactly 90 minutes, well ahead of the 9:10 per mile pace I needed. 

Apparently I slowed down over the next few miles, because I Pacer Jim and his remaining 2 hour crew caught up with me a little beyond the 12 mile point. I finished a little ahead of them.

Crossing the finish line was amazing and slightly disorienting. I think I had a mild, temporary case of PTSD. My head was in a fog and I couldn't think clearly, as I shuffled through a post-race food line, collecting food with no idea if I wanted to eat it or not. It was nearly half an hour before I felt coherent enough to call home and tell my family I'd finished. Now it's 7:30pm and I'm pretty much all better. Well, I'm still a bit sore, tired and dehydrated (amazing considering how much water I've consumed since finishing the race), but all in all, I'm feeling alright.

Interesting side note: The local Air Force "Band of Flight" played as part of the after-race festivities. I remember seeing similar bands when I was a kid in the 80's. Back then, AF bands would play boring oldies - stuff from the 60's. Today they played totally cool music from the 80's. What a difference 20 years makes, eh?

Politics Part 4: Power To The People

I'm a big fan of term limits, because I think the idea of "government by the people" is an important principle for democracy. Career politicians have their place, I'm sure, but there's nothing like bringing in an actual human being, an ordinary citizen, into the halls of power. Anyone, no matter how idealistic or maverick-ish, can get twisted and warped if they spend too much time in a place like DC, so I think we need to bring in fresh eyes, new perspectives, on a regular basis

Hollywood loves to tell stories like Mr. Smith Goes To Washington (great movie!), and I think those stories resonate with audiences for a reason - there is truth in them. 

So, I don't mind a candidate who doesn't have much experience. And I'm skeptical of any candidate with too much experience. I like the idea of a small-town mayor or local community organizer going to the White House. I'm less excited about seeing a Senator or Congressman make the same journey. I like candidates who can demonstrate they are well educated on issues, and are thoughtful and reflective. I like candidates who can speak clearly and insightfully, and not get all wrapped around the axle of nuance. I distrust candidates who won't talk to the press or only speak with carefully selected, friendly audiences.

I would like to see a top-of-the-ticket candidate who has actually been in charge of things, who has made executive decisions, met a payroll, and things like that. Neither side is really offering that. Yes, Gov. Palin has executive experience, so that's a plus, and John McCain led a Navy training squadron, which is certainly something. So, on this particular type of executive experience, McCain/Palin seems to be in the lead. But then again, he's been in the Senate for an awfully long time... and Obama has that whole new-guy vibe.