HTP #1 says there is a 30% chance the event will occur.
HTP #2 says there is a 70% chance the event will occur.
The event occurs.
Question – which one was correct?
As far as I can tell, they both were correct, insofar as they both recognized the event was possible. And since they were both correct, was there any real difference between the quality of their predictions? Is HTP #2 40% more correct? If there’s no difference, what’s the point?
I think this is why weather forecasters don't advertise their "success rate" at predicting rain. It would probably be 100% success for every single weather guy - either that, or their success rate would be basically unmeasurable.
I wonder - do we work extra hard to avoid a negative event that has a 70% chance of occurring, and slack off if there's only a 30% chance? Do those numbers really mean anything at all about the future?